LimitlessCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 2, 2026, 11:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
475k to 500k 93.8%Leader of 9 outcomes
475k to 500k 93.8%Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
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Liquidity
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Liquidity unknownMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 28, 26, 3:57 PM UTCOct 3, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total vehicle deliveries for Q3 2026.
If Tesla does not publish Q3 2026 delivery figures by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press; however, other official company sources or a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source.
- If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution.
- If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — How many Tesla deliveries in Q3 2026? · 475k to 500k 92%
