KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probability4.21% or above 94%Leader of 15 outcomes
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$34.5K
Liquidity
$23.9K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
94.0% / 95.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Jul 27, 26, 7:30 PMJul 28, 26, 7:30 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
4.21% or above94%
Volume trend
$34.5kJul 272d of dataJul 28
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 28, 2026?
$45.6K4.65% or above: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 28, 2026?
$38.4K4.56% or above: 92%KALSHI
KALSHI
5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 28, 2026?
$32.4K4.53% or above: 1%KALSHI
KALSHI
When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
$3002023: 1.1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
$114.14.5%: 100%
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
$100Yes: 10%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETActive in these topics
Related News
Metaplanet’s brokerage deal ‘badly undersells’ plans for bitcoin-backed ‘Bitbonds,’ Benchmark saysThe Block
Bitcoin falls under $64K as surging US bond yields boost Fed rate-hike oddsCointelegraph
Hong Kong to Reopen RMB Bonds with Tender on July 23, 2026Blockchain.News
Polymarket odds price 0 Fed cuts in 2026 at 83.75% after TV segmentBlockchain.News
UK picks HSBC Orion platform for first digital sovereign bondCrypto News
UK plans first G7 digital sovereign bond by early 2027CoindeskRules
If the par yield for the 2Y U.S.
- Treasury is above 4.20% on Jul 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market will expire at the sooner of the first 7:00 PM ET following the data release for Jul 28, 2026, or one week following Jul 28, 2026.
- Treasury is above 4.22% on Jul 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury is above 4.24% on Jul 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Treasury is above 4.26% on Jul 28, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.