KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Above 54,000 MW · —
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Stored price
Above 55,000 MW 47%Market line of 19 lines
Above 55,000 MW 47%Market quality
68 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$32.3K
Open interest
$27.9K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Above 54,000 MWSpread
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Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Oct 16, 26, 4:55 AM UTCOct 17, 26, 4:55 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Above 54,000 MW
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 55,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT)
- The Expiration Value is the highest value in the TOTAL column of the first complete “Actual System Load by Forecast Zone” CSV report published by ERCOT for the October 16, 2026 operating day. Each value represents ERCOT system load for the corresponding full hour. Instantaneous load readings displayed elsewhere by ERCOT will not be considered. Values will be compared as published without rounding. Later revisions, settlement adjustments, or republications will not affect the Expiration Value.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 54,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 54,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 54,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 54,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 55,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 55,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 57,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 57,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 60,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 60,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 58,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 58,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 58,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 58,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 59,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 59,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 56,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 56,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 59,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 59,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 63,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 63,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 55,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 55,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 57,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 57,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 60,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 60,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 56,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 56,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 62,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 62,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 61,000 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 61,000 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 61,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 61,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 62,500 MW
- If the highest hourly total system load reported for the ERCOT grid on October 16, 2026 is above 62,500 MW, then the market resolves to Yes.
