KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Talarico / Talafreako (99%)
Resolved: Sep 10, 2026, 5:29 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Talarico / Talafreako
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
79%
ConsensusData quality warningStale data
Data as of Sep 11, 2026, 1:56 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Probability Timeline
Rubio1%
Zohran / Mamdani6%
Charlie / Kirk58%
Newsom / Newscum18%
Maduro39%
Schumer41%
Putin15%
Carney11%
Talarico / Talafreako73%
Sleepy Joe77%
Barack Hussein Obama61%
Vance83%
Dell55%
Macron25%
Elon / Musk9%
Pritzker5%
Tucker3%
Talarico / TalafreakoWon
Charlie / KirkLost
Sleepy JoeLost
MaduroLost
Barack Hussein ObamaLost
VanceLost
DellLost
ThuneLost
SchumerLost
MacronLost
Newsom / NewscumLost
RubioLost
Elon / MuskLost
Zohran / MamdaniLost
PutinLost
CarneyLost
TuckerLost
PritzkerLost
Event does not qualifyLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If Donald Trump says the named outcome as part of RNC Midterm Convention , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the RNC Midterm Convention using the live broadcast or stream.
- If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the RNC Midterm Convention will be used.
- Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word.
- Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc).
- Donald Trump speaking in an official capacity.