KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Republican (99%)
Resolved: Oct 27, 2026, 12:46 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Republican
At 7 days out
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At 24 hours out
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Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 27, 2026, 12:53 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Republican99%
Afford / Affordable / Affordability97%
Inflation1%
AI / Artificial Intelligence1%
Oil / Gas / Gasoline1%
Corrupt / Corruption1%
Trump (3+ times)7%
Billionaire1%
Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional1%
Democracy1%
China / Chinese1%
Iran / Iranian1%
Tariff1%
Healthcare1%
2028 / Campaign1%
Event does not qualify1%
RepublicanWon
Afford / Affordable / AffordabilityLost
Trump (3+ times)Lost
InflationLost
AI / Artificial IntelligenceLost
Oil / Gas / GasolineLost
Corrupt / CorruptionLost
BillionaireLost
Constitution / Constitutional / UnconstitutionalLost
DemocracyLost
China / ChineseLost
Iran / IranianLost
TariffLost
HealthcareLost
2028 / CampaignLost
Event does not qualifyLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Pete Buttigieg announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiWill Pete Buttigieg announce a run for President before 2028?
PredictItPete Buttigieg will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2028.
Manifold MarketsWhen will Pete Buttigieg announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Pete Buttigieg win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Pete Buttigieg run for president of the United States in 2028?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Pete Buttigieg says Republican as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ABCFox NewsMSNBCThe Wall Street JournalSemaforThe InformationCBSAxiosCNNReutersThe New York TimesThe Washington Postthe Associated PressPolitico
- How this is resolved Video of the MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 using the live broadcast or stream. If a consensus by Kalshi employees cannot be reached using video, internal & external (official) transcripts of the MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 will be used. Payout Criteria The exact phrase/word, or a plural or possessive form of the phrase/word. Plural nouns occurring within proper nouns and noun phrases (e.g. names, titles, etc). Pete Buttigieg speaking in an official capacity. For phrases with slashes like "Doge/Dogecoin," either word satisfies the criterion. Doesn't count for payout Grammatical/tense inflections are otherwise not included. Additional content not included in the original broadcast or stream. Presence alone during a livestream is not sufficient for the market to qualify (e.g., inaudible private conversations on camera, unofficial statements picked up on a hot mic). Except as otherwise specified, previously aired content, archival footage, and recordings captured at times, places, or events wholly separate from the featured address. Payout for cancellations and delays If an event is definitively cancelled or the event fails to qualify under the Payout Criterion, or any other circumstance prevents normal resolution, then the market for "Event does not qualify" resolves to Yes and all other markets will resolve to No. If the event is postponed, and such a postponement is announced by the end of the following calendar day to be rescheduled to a time within 14 calendar days, the markets shall remain open.
Rules for each outcome
- Republican
- If Pete Buttigieg says Republican as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Afford / Affordable / Affordability
- If Pete Buttigieg says Afford / Affordable / Affordability as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Trump (3+ times)
- If Pete Buttigieg says Trump (3+ times) as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Inflation
- If Pete Buttigieg says Inflation as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- AI / Artificial Intelligence
- If Pete Buttigieg says AI / Artificial Intelligence as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Oil / Gas / Gasoline
- If Pete Buttigieg says Oil / Gas / Gasoline as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Corrupt / Corruption
- If Pete Buttigieg says Corrupt / Corruption as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Billionaire
- If Pete Buttigieg says Billionaire as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional
- If Pete Buttigieg says Constitution / Constitutional / Unconstitutional as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Democracy
- If Pete Buttigieg says Democracy as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- China / Chinese
- If Pete Buttigieg says China / Chinese as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Iran / Iranian
- If Pete Buttigieg says Iran / Iranian as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Tariff
- If Pete Buttigieg says Tariff as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Healthcare
- If Pete Buttigieg says Healthcare as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- 2028 / Campaign
- If Pete Buttigieg says 2028 / Campaign as part of MS NOW: The Weeknight originally scheduled for October 26, 2026 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Event does not qualify
- If a qualifying event does not occur , then the market resolves to Yes.