KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 46° or above (43%)
Resolved: Oct 22, 2026, 12:40 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
46° or above
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 22, 2026, 11:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
47° or above6%
46° or above43%
45° or above98%
48° or above2%
49° or above3%
44° or above99%
41° or above0%
42° or above0%
43° or above0%
50° or above0%
44° or aboveLost
45° or aboveLost
46° or aboveWon
47° or aboveLost
49° or aboveLost
48° or aboveLost
41° or aboveLost
42° or aboveLost
43° or aboveLost
50° or aboveLost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 45.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 44° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 43.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 45° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 44.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 46° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 45.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 47° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 46.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 49° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 48.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 48° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 47.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 41° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 40.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 42° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 41.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 43° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 42.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 22, 2026 at 8 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 49.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.