KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 51° or above (99%)
Resolved: Oct 21, 2026, 4:40 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 3:55 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
52° or above4%
51° or above96%
54° or above0%
53° or above2%
56° or above1%
50° or above99%
47° or above0%
48° or above0%
49° or above0%
55° or above0%
51° or aboveWon
50° or aboveLost
52° or aboveLost
54° or aboveLost
53° or aboveLost
56° or aboveLost
47° or aboveLost
48° or aboveLost
49° or aboveLost
55° or aboveLost
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PolymarketRules
If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 50.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 51° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 50.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 49.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 52° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 51.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 54° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 53.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 53° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 52.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 56° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 55.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 47° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 46.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 48° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 47.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 49° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 48.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 55° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 21, 2026 at 12 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 54.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.