KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 16, 2026, 2:51 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
56° or above 99%Leader of 10 outcomes
56° or above 99%Market quality
34 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Open interest
$1K
Low open interestSpread
4.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleOct 16, 26, 2:00 AM UTCOct 16, 26, 3:00 AM UTC
Trends
56° or above99%
57° or above18%
59° or above3%
58° or above1%
51° or above0%
52° or above0%
53° or above0%
54° or above0%
55° or above0%
60° or above0%
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PolymarketRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 56° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 55.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 57° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 56.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 59° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 58.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 58° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 57.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 51° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 50.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 52° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 51.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 53° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 52.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 54° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 53.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 55° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 54.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 60° or above
- If the temperature recorded at New York City for Oct 15, 2026 at 11 PM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 59.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.