KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 82° or above (1%)
Resolved: Oct 16, 2026, 11:10 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 16, 2026, 10:56 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
82° or above1%
80° or above96%
78° or above99%
83° or above2%
79° or above99%
75° or above99%
76° or above99%
77° or above99%
84° or above1%
81° or above98%
80° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
78° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
79° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
75° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
76° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
77° or aboveLost
Before close: 99% ·
81° or aboveLost
Before close: 70% ·
83° or aboveLost
Before close: 1% ·
82° or aboveWon
Before close: 2% ·
84° or aboveLost
Before close: 1% ·
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in Miami on Oct 16, 2026?
KalshiLowest temperature in Miami on Oct 16, 2026?
KalshiRain in Miami in Oct 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in Miami on October 17?
PolymarketLowest temperature in Miami on October 17?
PolymarketWill the highest temperature in Miami (MIA)(KMIA) exceed 89 F on October 16, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExRules
If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Synoptic Data
- The official final value for this market is determined strictly by the temperature reported by Synoptic Data, calculated in accordance with the Kalshi Weather Index Methodology. Alternative sources—such as NWS Climatological Reports or Google Weather—may serve as references, but are not authoritative and will not be used for market resolution.
Rules for each outcome
- 80° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 79.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 78° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 77.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 79° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 78.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 75° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 74.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 76° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 75.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 77° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 76.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 81° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 80.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 83° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 82.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 82° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 81.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 84° or above
- If the temperature recorded at Miami, FL for Oct 16, 2026 at 6 AM EDT as reported by Synoptic Data, is above 83.99°, then the market resolves to Yes.