KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityChatGPT 3%-1.0%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.7K
Liquidity
$19.5K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 3.0%
Spread
50.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jun 29, 26, 5:00 PMJul 6, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
ChatGPT3%
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If Claude is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two models are tied under Rank, then the model with the highest Arena Score will resolve to Yes.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will resolve to Yes.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will resolve to Yes.
- If Qwen is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If ChatGPT is the #1 model on LM Code Arena Leaderboard on Jul 6, 2026 at 10:00AM ET, then the market resolves to Yes.