KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedThis market resolved: New York (98%)
Resolved: Jul 4, 2026, 1:37 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
New York
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
62%
ConsensusCurrent implied probabilityNew York 96.1%+45.0ptLeader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$794.2K
Liquidity
$1.9M
High liquidityBid / Ask
98.0% / 99.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 24 days ago
StaleOct 7, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 30, 4:59 AM
Probability Timeline
New York98%
Rhode Island7%
Tennessee1%
96.1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.
Compare venues· New York
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | Low | 98% | — | $794.2K | $1.9M | 24 days ago | |
 Manifold Markets87% match · verified | — | 100% | — | — | — | 19 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
Where will Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce get married?
Closed
+1.0pt100%
+1.0pt100%
-1.0pt0%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast40 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in Rhode Island before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce do not marry before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to No Wedding Reported.
- If multiple wedding ceremonies occur in different locations (for example, a civil and a symbolic ceremony), only the first wedding ceremony to occur and be publicly reported by a Source Agency will govern this market.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in New York before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in Pennsylvania before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in Tennessee before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.9k96.0%KALSHINew York — Yes24d ago
KALSHINew York — Yes24d ago$2.4k97.0%KALSHINew York — Yes24d ago
KALSHINew York — Yes24d agoVolume trend
$794.2kJul 23d of dataJul 4
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Rules
If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in Rhode Island before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce do not marry before Jan 1, 2030, the market will resolve to No Wedding Reported.
- If multiple wedding ceremonies occur in different locations (for example, a civil and a symbolic ceremony), only the first wedding ceremony to occur and be publicly reported by a Source Agency will govern this market.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in New York before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in Pennsylvania before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s Wedding happens in Tennessee before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.