KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityCerebras 2%Leader of 22 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$56.5
Liquidity
$47.2
Low liquidityBid / Ask
2.0% / 3.0%
Spread
50.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 2, 26, 12:00 AMSep 30, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Cerebras2%
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If SpaceX is announced to be or is officially added to S&P 500 during July 1, 2026 to September 30, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The market resolves to Yes if either the index administrator officially announces the membership change OR the change takes effect during the specified time period, whichever occurs first.
- The effective date of the change need not fall within the time period; only the announcement or implementation must occur within the time period.
- Temporary suspensions do not constitute removal unless explicitly designated as permanent by the index administrator.
- If an announced addition or removal is subsequently reversed due to error within the time period, the Exchange will determine resolution at its discretion.
- For companies undergoing mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring, removal from the index due to such corporate actions constitutes removal for purposes of this market.