KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Justin Timberlake (92%)
Resolved: Oct 9, 2026, 2:43 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 21, 2026, 11:26 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Clairo61%
Daft Punk13%
The Marías90%
Rihanna46%
Post Malone3%
Migos97%
Olivia Dean68%
CamiloLost
Lil Nas XLost
Ice SpiceLost
Big SeanLost
PARTYNEXTDOORLost
Tate McRaeLost
Zara LarssonLost
NFLost
Kendrick LamarLost
Justin TimberlakeWon
EminemLost
The WeekndLost
Chappell RoanLost
Dua LipaLost
The MaríasLost
Bad BunnyLost
Billie EilishLost
ClairoLost
Justin BieberLost
Nicki MinajLost
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which artists will release a new song in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Archived event-level rules. The exact terms for each outcome are no longer available.
If the named outcome releases a new song in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Spotify
- The market resolves based on public availability on Spotify under the artist's official discography.
- For markets specifying "new song" or "new music," the release must be an original composition first released during the time period.
- Re-recordings (unless in a new language), remasters, radio edits, clean/explicit versions of existing tracks, remixes, live versions, acoustic versions, instrumentals, demos, alternative takes, or reproductions of songs already on Spotify do not qualify as "new." Songs released in a new language count as new releases.
- Cosmetic changes like title edits, artwork updates, or re-uploads of the same audio do not constitute new releases.
- If a release is withdrawn after appearing on Spotify, it still qualifies if verifiably public at any point during the time period.