KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Above 105 (99%)
Resolved: Oct 5, 2026, 4:53 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Probability Timeline
Above 10665%
Above 11236%
Above 105Won
Above 108Lost
Above 107Lost
Above 102Lost
Above 98Lost
Above 104Lost
Above 106Lost
Above 103Lost
Above 112Lost
Above 116Lost
Above 120Lost
Above 124Lost
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KalshiRules
If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 105, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on the first value reported by Carbon Arc. Corrections or revisions made after the market has been settled will not affect the outcome. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means Sephora Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 105
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 105, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 108
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 108, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 107
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 107, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 102
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 102, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 98
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 98, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 104
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 104, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 106
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 106, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 103
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 103, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 112
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 112, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 116
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 116 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 120
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 120 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 124
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (September 2026) for September 2026 is above 124 , then the market resolves to Yes.