KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Above 114 35%Market line of 7 lines
Above 114 35%Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$2
Open interest
$2.2K
Low open interestSpread
51.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Oct 1, 26, 4:00 AM UTCNov 7, 26, 3:29 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 114 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Carbon Arc
- For purposes of this market, determination will resolve on finalized Carbon Arc values recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on the 4th calendar day after the end of the month covered by this market. For example, finalized Carbon Arc values for August will be recorded at 11:59 p.m. ET on September 4th. The index measures year-over-year, where 100 means Sephora Credit Card Spend was equal to the same month last year. Values above 100 indicate growth and values below 100 indicate decline: for example, 103 = 3% growth, 97 = 3% decline from year prior. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the underlying company. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Rules for each outcome
- Above 99
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 99 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 114
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 114 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 106
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 106 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 121
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 121 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 112
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 112 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 108
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 108 , then the market resolves to Yes.
- Above 110
- If the Carbon Arc Sephora Credit Card Spend (October 2026) for October 2026 is above 110 , then the market resolves to Yes.