KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Lupita Nyong'o 74%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
29 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$3.6
Low liquiditySpread
8.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Aug 11, 26, 9:53 PM UTCAug 31, 29, 2:00 PM UTC
Trends
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Next Black Panther film: Main protagonist
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the named outcome performs/ is announced as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Marvel
- For the purposes of this Contract, the named outcome satisfies the Payout Criterion if either:
- Official Announcement: the named outcome is officially announced, confirmed, or publicly credited as cast to perform any role as an actor in Black Panther 3, regardless of whether the performance ultimately occurs; OR
- Actual Performance: the named outcome appears on stage, on screen, or in recorded content as any role as an actor in any official performance, showing, or release of Black Panther 3.
- Additional clarification(s):
- If Black Panther 3 is entirely cancelled or abandoned before any official performance or release occurs, but the named outcome was officially announced in any role as an actor, the Contract will resolve to “Yes.”
Open markets
Entertainment
POLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+8.5pt76.5%
- 940 - 950m-11.0pt18.6%
- 960 - 970m-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
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KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
- Above 60+2.0pt99%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $212.1K
- 24h Vol
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KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+7.0pt45%
- Jack Barton-5.0pt20%
- Callum Turner-5.0pt18%
+27 more outcomes
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- Jack Lowden+24.1pt46.2%
- No Bond chosen-1.5pt19.8%
- Jack Barton-1.4pt10.4%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIRunner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45+15.0pt99%
- Above 50+39.0pt97%
- Above 55+42.0pt84%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $307.5K
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-51.0pt16%
- Above 408%
- Above 50-57.0pt7%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $99.8K
- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Black Panther 3: Cast?
- Kalshi prices Lupita Nyong'o at 74% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Black Panther 3: Cast resolve?
- Black Panther 3: Cast is scheduled to resolve on August 31, 2029.
- How is Black Panther 3: Cast settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome performs/ is announced as any role as an actor in Black Panther 3, then the market resolves to Yes.