KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2027 95.1%Leader of 3 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$141
Liquidity
$7.2K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Dec 16, 25, 3:00 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?
Manifold MarketsDune: Part Three: Rotten Tomatoes score
KalshiWill Dune: Part Three be delayed?
KalshiWill Dune: Part Three be delayed?
Polymarket"Dune: Part Three" · Rotten Tomatoes score
FutuurWill Villeneuve's DUNE part 2 receive a higher IMDB rating than DUNE part 1 by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If Dune: Part Three has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:ReutersAxiosPoliticoSemaforThe InformationThe Washington PostThe Wall Street JournalABCCBSCNNFox NewsMSNBCNBCofficial website or verified social media account of the media distributor in geographystreaming platform for media in geographyfilm studios responsible for the production of mediaNetflixSpotifyIMDbVarietyThe Hollywood ReporterDeadlineEntertainment Weeklythe Associated PressThe New York TimesBloomberg News
- The media must be made available to the general public through at least one official distribution channel, including theatrical release, streaming availability, physical media (DVD, Blu-ray), or authorized digital purchase/download.
- The release must be accessible without special invitations or industry credentials in at least one major metropolitan area if the geography refers to a country.
- Private screenings, film festivals, leaked content, and torrent availability do not qualify.
- Trailers and soundtracks do not satisfy the criterion unless the full media is released.
- Different versions or formats of the same base content (theatrical, director's cut, extended edition) are considered the same media if the core content is substantially identical.
Open markets
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.5pt70.6%
- 940 - 950m-17.0pt25.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $371.8K
- 24h Vol
- $113.9K
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+26.0pt67%
- Jack Barton-7.0pt21%
- Callum Turner-6.0pt19%
+27 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.1M
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-5.5pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.6pt9%
+21 more outcomes
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $93K
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $151.8K
- 24h Vol
- $52.7K
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer-1.0pt17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
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- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Dune: Part Three be released??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2027 at 95% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Dune: Part Three be released? resolve?
- When will Dune: Part Three be released? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is When will Dune: Part Three be released? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Dune: Part Three has been publicly released Worldwide through official channels the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.