KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: 49° or below (99%)
Resolved: Oct 30, 2026, 12:08 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
49° or below
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
15%
SurpriseData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 7:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
49° or below99%
52° to 53°3%
50° to 51°1%
54° to 55°18%
56° to 57°1%
58° or above1%
49° or belowWon
52° to 53°Lost
50° to 51°Lost
54° to 55°Lost
56° to 57°Lost
58° or aboveLost
Rules
If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is less than 50° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Weather Company
- Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.
Rules for each outcome
- 49° or below
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is less than 50° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 52° to 53°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is between 52-53° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 50° to 51°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is between 50-51° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 54° to 55°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is between 54-55° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 56° to 57°
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is between 56-57° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 58° or above
- If the minimum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Oct 29, 2026, is greater than 57° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
