Current implied probability
Gemini 2%Leader of 8 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$87.8
Liquidity
$89.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
1.0% / 2.0%
Spread
100.0%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 8 minutes ago
Jun 13, 26, 5:00 PMJun 20, 26, 2:00 PM
Trends
Selected outcome
Gemini2%
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If Google has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win.
- If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win.
- Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
- If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Jun 20, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.