Louisiana Republican Senate primary: margin of victory
Politics
KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeThis market resolved: Julia Letlow, 9%+ (100%)
Resolved: Jun 2, 2026, 10:48 PM
Winning Outcome
Julia Letlow, 9%+
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Current implied probabilityJulia Letlow, 0-3% 0%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$821.7
Low liquidityBid / Ask
- / 0.1%
Market data
Updated 10 days ago
StaleMar 19, 26, 2:00 PMMay 16, 27, 2:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Julia Letlow, 9%+100%
Julia Letlow, 0-3%0%
John Fleming, 0-3%0%
John Fleming, 3-6%0%
John Fleming, 6-9%0%
John Fleming, 9%+0%
Bill Cassidy, 0-3%0%
Bill Cassidy, 3-6%0%
Bill Cassidy, 6-9%0%
Bill Cassidy, 9%+0%
1%
0%
0%
100%
0%
0%
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If the margin of victory for Julia Letlow in the first round of the 2026 Louisiana Republican Senate primary falls between 0% and 3%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Julia Letlow minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julia Letlow if Julia Letlow wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Julia Letlow loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Julia Letlow minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Julia Letlow if Julia Letlow wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Julia Letlow loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Julia Letlow minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Julia Letlow wins, or the electoral votes received by Julia Letlow minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Julia Letlow does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.