KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 68%
Yes 68%Market quality
51 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.4K
Open interest
$5.1K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
52.0% / 69.0%
Spread
17.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 19 minutes ago
Oct 7, 26, 3:30 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Hurricane Isaias category?
KalshiHow strong will Isaias be?
PolymarketWhere will Isaias make landfall as a hurricane?
PolymarketWill we (temporarily) cross the 3 degrees celcius of global warming by 2026?
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Oct 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 9, 2026?
KalshiRules
This outcome's exact rule is not available.
Settles via:AccuWeatherNBCAssociated PressNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationThe Wall Street Journalthe National Hurricane CenterThe Washington PostNational Weather ServiceCNN WeatherThe New York TimesBloomberg NewsThe Weather ChannelReuters
- A track segment is the straight line connecting the storm positions in two consecutive official National Hurricane Center public or forecast advisories. A segment qualifies if any part of that line passes through the defined region, or either coordinate point lies within it. The region is the Alabama feature (STATEFP 01, STUSPS AL) in the US Census Bureau 2025 cartographic boundary state shapefile at 1:500,000 scale: https://www2.census.gov/geo/tiger/GENZ2025/shp/cb2025usstate500k.zip . This is a track-intersection test; a coastal landfall in Alabama is not required. The named storm is Isaias in the 2026 season; the cutoff is the stated calendar date, not the end of the usual hurricane season. Unofficial coordinates and post-storm analyses do not establish a qualifying track segment, and revisions after expiration are disregarded. Trading closes December 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM EST. The latest expiration is January 7, 2027 at 10:00 AM EST; expiration may move earlier after a qualifying occurrence in accordance with Rule 7.2. Settlement is no later than the day after expiration unless the outcome is under review pursuant to Rule 7.1. The HURPATH outcome-review and indeterminacy provisions remain applicable.
Rules for each outcome
- Yes
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.
- No
- This outcome's exact rule is not available.