KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
74° or below 56.2%Leader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
74° or below 56.2%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.4K
Open interest
$2.8K
Medium open interestSpread
3.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 2:00 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 5m (informational)
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in San Francisco on October 1?
PolymarketLowest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 30, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in San Francisco on October 2?
PolymarketWill the highest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) exceed 79 F on September 30, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExWill the highest temperature in San Francisco (SF)(SFO)(KSFO) exceed 75 F on September 30, 2026? (maximum) (max) (hottest)?
ForecastExRules
If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is less than 75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Weather Company
- Not all weather data is the same. While checking a source like AccuWeather or Google Weather may help guide your decision, the official and final value used to determine this market is the maximum/minimum temperature as reported by the Weather Company. Reading weather data Preliminary Weather Company data may be subject to rounding and conversion differences from the final reported value. Use caution when interpreting preliminary Weather Company readings. If it is determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange that there is a material error in the initial non-preliminary publication, Expiration may be held until the publication of a non-materially-erroneous data revision or until the Expiration Date, whichever comes first. If no data is available at the end of this period, all markets will resolve to the last fair price determined by Kalshi. Please note, a status of "Final" on weather.com/kalshi is provided for convenience only, and does not guarantee data to be error-free and thus exempt from the above.
Rules for each outcome
- 74° or below
- If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is less than 75° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 75° to 76°
- If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 75-76° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 77° to 78°
- If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 77-78° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 79° to 80°
- If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 79-80° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 81° to 82°
- If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is between 81-82° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
- 83° or above
- If the maximum temperature recorded at San Francisco (CLISFO) for Oct 1, 2026, is greater than 82° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.