KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: Above $4607.99 (48%)
Limited resolution evidence
CoinRithm can show the recorded outcome, but not every settlement field is provider-verified.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 3:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Above $4589.99 99%Leader of 40 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.6K
Liquidity
$3.6K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 26, 2:01 PMAug 21, 26, 4:00 PM
Probability Timeline
Above $4597.9989%
Above $4607.9948%
Above $4605.9956%
Above $4603.9978%
Above $4599.9981%
Above $4591.9997%
Above $4609.9922%
Above $4601.9982%
Above $4593.9996%
Above $4595.9995%
Above $4589.9999%
Above $4611.9919%
Above $4573.9999%
Above $4613.9921%
Above $4583.9998%
Above $4547.9999%
Above $4587.9985%
Above $4539.990%
Above $4541.990%
Above $4543.990%
Above $4545.990%
Above $4549.990%
Above $4551.990%
Above $4553.990%
Above $4555.990%
Above $4557.990%
Above $4559.990%
Above $4561.990%
Above $4563.990%
Above $4565.990%
Above $4567.9991%
Above $4569.9991%
Above $4571.9991%
Above $4575.9999%
Above $4577.9999%
Above $4579.9999%
Above $4581.990%
Above $4585.990%
Above $4615.990%
Above $4617.990%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
97%
96%
95%
91%
91%
91%
89%
85%
82%
81%
78%
56%
48%
Rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT is above 4539.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - Gold
- The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.
- When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval.
- For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM.
- If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
- If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT is above 4541.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80+27.4pt100%
- ↓ $85+9.3pt100%
- ↓ $75+27.9pt100%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5M
- 24h Vol
- $389.6K
KALSHIBrent crude oil price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $86.99+3.0pt99%
- Above $82.99+1.0pt99%
- Above $80.99+1.0pt99%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+2.0pt34.5%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+7.0pt26.6%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt12.4%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIGold price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $4555.99+66.0pt99%
- Above $4495.99+33.0pt99%
- Above $3955.9999%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $169.6K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.08099%
- Above 3.80099%
- Above 3.82099%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $280.1K
- 24h Vol
- $102.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
- ↑ $4,600+48.4pt100%
- ↑ $4,500+64.0pt100%
- ↑ $4,400+15.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026
- EV commodity prices on Aug 21, 2026
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 24, 2026?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Silver price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Copper price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Natural gas price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Gold price on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET?
- Kalshi prices Above $4589.99 at 99% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Gold price on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET resolve?
- Gold price on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET is scheduled to resolve on August 21, 2026.
- How is Gold price on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on August 21, 2026 at 12:00 PM EDT is above 4539.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.