KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: No (45%)
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, 10:15 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
No
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 10:00 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
Yes 55%
Market quality
44 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$82
Liquidity
$2.3K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
55.0% / 57.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleAug 21, 26, 10:00 AMAug 21, 26, 10:15 AM
Probability Timeline
Yes55%
No45%
55%
45%
Rules
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on Aug 21, 2026 at 6:15 AM EDT is at least the close price of the 1-minute Pyth GOLD candlestick at 6:00 AM EDT on August 21, 2026 USD/|| Unit ||, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Pyth - Gold
- The settlement value is rounded to the nearest 2 decimal places.
- When confirming the settlement value, note the close price for the 1-minute candlestick at a given time is the price at the end of the immediately preceding one-minute interval.
- For example, the candlestick timestamped 4:59 PM reflects trading during 4:59:00 PM to 4:59:59 PM and closes at 5:00:00 PM.
- If no data is published by the specified source agency for the specified time, then the most recently available published data will be used to resolve the market.
Open markets
Commodities
POLYMARKETWhat will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?
- ↓ $80+27.4pt100%
- ↓ $85+9.3pt100%
- ↓ $75+27.9pt100%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $8.5M
- 24h Vol
- $389.6K
KALSHIBrent crude oil price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $86.99+3.0pt99%
- Above $82.99+1.0pt99%
- Above $80.99+1.0pt99%
+17 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+2.0pt34.5%
- Before Jan 1, 2028+7.0pt26.6%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt12.4%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIGold price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Above $4555.99+66.0pt99%
- Above $4495.99+33.0pt99%
- Above $3955.9999%
+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $169.6K
KALSHIUS gas prices this week
- Above 4.08099%
- Above 3.80099%
- Above 3.82099%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $280.1K
- 24h Vol
- $102.3K
POLYMARKETWhat will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in August 2026?
- ↑ $4,600+48.4pt100%
- ↑ $4,500+64.0pt100%
- ↑ $4,400+15.4pt100%
+11 more outcomes
- Will the Clarity Act become law?
- What will Gold (GC) hit__ by end of December?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
- Gas prices in the US in Aug 2026
- EV commodity prices on Aug 21, 2026
- Oil Price (WTI) on Aug 24, 2026?
- Crude Oil all time high by which date?
- How high will oil (WTI) get by Dec 31, 2026?
- Silver price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Copper price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
- Natural gas price on August 21, 2026 at 5:00 PM EDT?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Gold 15 min · $4,582.51 target?
- Kalshi prices Yes at 55% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Gold 15 min · $4,582.51 target resolve?
- Gold 15 min · $4,582.51 target is scheduled to resolve on August 21, 2026.
- How is Gold 15 min · $4,582.51 target settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for Gold on Aug 21, 2026 at 6:15 AM EDT is at least the close price of the 1-minute Pyth GOLD candlestick at 6:00 AM EDT on August 21, 2026 USD/|| Unit ||, then the market resolves to Yes.