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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. AI
  3. When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?
When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?

When will AI solve another Frontier Math Problem?

4.0% (24h)AITechOne-Off20d
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Before July
Before July 20%-4.0%
Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality

28 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$12.3

Liquidity

$173.8

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

15.0% / 19.0%

Spread

26.7%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 9 minutes ago

Mar 25, 26, 2:00 PMJul 1, 26, 2:00 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Before July20%

Rules

If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • At the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.
  • If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • At the time of issuance, one FrontierMath: Open Problem has been solved by AI (a Ramsey-style problem on hypergraphs); for the purpose of this market, additional AI models subsequently solving the same problem will not count.
  • If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.