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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Colombian presidential election first round winner?
Colombian presidential election first round winner?

Colombian presidential election first round winner?

74.4% (24h)Politics
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Abelardo de la Espriella (96%)

Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, 1:18 PM

Winning Outcome

Abelardo de la Espriella

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

24%

Surprise
Current implied probability
Abelardo de la Espriella
Abelardo de la Espriella 96%+74.4%
Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality

79 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$3.6K

Liquidity

$4.6K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

96.3% / 98.7%

Spread

2.5%

Tight spread
Market data

Updated 11 days ago

Stale
Mar 5, 26, 3:00 PMMay 31, 27, 2:00 PM

Probability Timeline

Abelardo de la Espriella96%
Iván Cepeda Castro61%
0%25%50%75%100%May 30May 31Jun 1
Outcome24hChance
Abelardo de la Espriella
Abelardo de la Espriella
+74.4%
96%
Iván Cepeda Castro
Iván Cepeda Castro
-76.3%
1%
Paloma Valencia
Paloma Valencia
0%
Sergio Fajardo
Sergio Fajardo
0%
Daniel Quintero
Daniel Quintero
0%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
  • If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
  • For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
  • If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
  • For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.

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Rules

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • For parliamentary elections, the party or coalition with the most seats wins.
  • If two parties tie in seats: the one entering government will resolve to YES and all others to NO If both or neither enter government, the one with the higher share of the vote will resolve to YES and all others to NO For coalitions/alliances, only those formally registered with electoral authorities before the nomination deadline count, not post-election governing arrangements Overhang seats, leveling seats, and appointed seats count only if specified
  • For referenda/plebiscites, the specified option achieves the required threshold per applicable law (simple majority, supermajority, dual majority, turnout requirements).
  • If multiple thresholds exist (e.g., majority of votes AND majority of states), all must be met
  • For presidential or direct elections, the candidate who wins according to the electoral system (electoral college, popular vote, or runoff as applicable) and either (i) is inaugurated/sworn in/takes office, or (ii) the scheduled inauguration date passes without a different candidate taking office is the winner.