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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24h)Politics
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: No (100%)

Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, 1:17 PM

Winning Outcome

No

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

89%

Consensus
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 0%-14.8%
Market quality

36 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$704

Liquidity

$841.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 11 days ago

Stale
Mar 5, 26, 3:00 PMMay 31, 27, 2:00 PM

Probability Timeline

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%May 30May 31Jun 1
Outcome24hChance
Yes
Yes
-14.8%
0%
No
No
100%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Rules

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.