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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?
Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

Who will advance from the CA-11 primary?

19.1% (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
KalshiKalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee

This market resolved: Connie Chan (99%)

Resolved: Jun 3, 2026, 2:41 PM

Winning Outcome

Connie Chan

At 7 days out

—

At 24 hours out

76%

Consensus
Current implied probability
Saikat Chakrabarti
Saikat Chakrabarti 5%-19.1%
Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality

36 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$449.7

Liquidity

$900.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

1.2% / 4.9%

Spread

308.3%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 9 days ago

Stale
Oct 18, 25, 2:00 PMNov 3, 26, 3:00 PM

Probability Timeline

Saikat Chakrabarti5%
Connie Chan99%
0%25%50%75%100%Jun 1Jun 2Jun 3
Outcome24hChance
Saikat Chakrabarti
Saikat Chakrabarti
-19.1%
5%
Connie Chan
Connie Chan
+27.0%
99%
Marie Hurabiell
Marie Hurabiell
+0.4%
1%
Christine Pelosi
Christine Pelosi
+0.8%
1%
Nancy Pelosi
Nancy Pelosi
2%
David Ganezer
David Ganezer
7%

This market has closed. Mock trading is available on open markets only.

Rules

If Nancy Pelosi advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Scott Wiener advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Saikat Chakrabarti advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Christine Pelosi advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If David Ganezer advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Connie Chan advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Rules

If Nancy Pelosi advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • If Scott Wiener advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Saikat Chakrabarti advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Christine Pelosi advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If David Ganezer advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
  • If Connie Chan advances in the 2026 CA-11 primary in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.