KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityYes 65%
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.8K
Liquidity
$2.2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
59.0% / 60.0%
Spread
1.7%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 12:00 AMJan 15, 27, 2:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes65%
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If the US business applications are above 546,719 in any month during 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this market, “U.S. business applications” refers to Business Applications: Total for All NAICS in the United States, FRED series BABATOTALSAUS.
- This series is reported monthly, seasonally adjusted, and sourced from the U.S.
- Census Bureau’s Business Formation Statistics.
- This market will use the first value published by Federal Reserve Economic Data for each relevant month.
- Revisions released after the first publication of a monthly value will not be considered.