KalshiClosedCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedThis market resolved: Magnitude of at least 6.0 (96%)
Resolved: Oct 31, 2026, 11:15 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Winning Outcome
Magnitude of at least 6.0
At 7 days out
—
At 24 hours out
—
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Nov 1, 2026, 9:53 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Magnitude of at least 6.096%
Magnitude of at least 5.499%
Magnitude of at least 5.629%
Magnitude of at least 5.846%
Magnitude of at least 6.21%
Magnitude of at least 5.273%
Magnitude of at least 6.41%
Magnitude of at least 6.610%
Magnitude of at least 6.814%
Magnitude of at least 7.010%
Magnitude of at least 5.4Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.6Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.8Lost
Magnitude of at least 5.2Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.0Won
Magnitude of at least 6.8Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.6Lost
Magnitude of at least 7.0Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.2Lost
Magnitude of at least 6.4Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What will the biggest earthquake be on November 1, 2026?
PolymarketWhat will the biggest earthquake be on November 2, 2026?
PolymarketHow strong of an earthquake will occur worldwide by November 30?
PolymarketWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
KalshiWhere will the largest magnitude Earthquake be in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2028?
KalshiRules
If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:the United States Geological Survey
- The determining value is the USGS-reported magnitude displayed at Expiration, preferentially moment magnitude (Mw) and otherwise the primary magnitude type reported by USGS. If multiple earthquakes tie for the highest magnitude, all tied earthquakes count. If USGS ComCat is unavailable at Expiration, settlement may be delayed under the Contract contingencies.
Rules for each outcome
- Magnitude of at least 5.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 5.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 5.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.8
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.8 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.6
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.6 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 7.0
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.2
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.2 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Magnitude of at least 6.4
- If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 31, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 6.4 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.