PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
Nein 85%+1.5pt
Marktqualitat
67 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
875,1 €
Liquidität
1374,4 €
Niedrige LiquiditätGeld / Brief
15.0% / 15.5%
Spread
0.5 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
7d-Änderung
+2.3 pts
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Minuten
1. Sept. 26, 15:28 UTC30. Juni 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Grok Model (4.7+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketOpenAI’s Astra Model: Humanity’s Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketWhich AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?
KalshiWill OpenAI release its Astra model to the US general public before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI Astra solve a math problem Claude Opus 5 deems more important than the Jacobian Conjecture?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next OpenAI "Astra" model added to the Arena.AI Leaderboard (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) has the highest arena rank when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the leaderboard.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Astra" (including variants or successor branding such as Astra 1, Astra 6, Astra X, GPT-6 Astra, or similar naming or rebranded versions), or be confirmed to be the same model referenced in the announcement by OpenAI or by a consensus of credible reporting.
- Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the specified rank in the Rank column of the leaderboard, regardless of any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
Offene Märkte
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 135.247,6 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 102.709,4 €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 324.994,1 €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena)?
- Polymarket bewertet No mit 85% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena) entschieden?
- Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena) soll am 30. Juni 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will OpenAI's Astra model debut as #1? (Text Arena) abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: On August 1, 2026, OpenAI publicly disclosed "Astra," describing an internal version of Astra as its "next major model." You can read more about that here: https://openai.com/index/ten-advances-in-mathematics/.