PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
50%+ 93%+3.0ptFührend unter 4 Optionen
50%+ 93%+3.0ptMarktqualitat
≤49 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
151,1 €
Liquidität
1629,9 €
Niedrige LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Minuten
29. Sept. 26, 20:04 UTC1. Juli 27, 03:59 UTC
Trends
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Ja
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next GPT Sol Model (6.1+): Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketMeta's Watermelon Model: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketGemini Argon: Humanity's Last Exam Debut?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+): Text Arena Debut?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's o4 get above 50% on humanity's last exam?
Manifold MarketsWill the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Anthropic Claude Fable model (5.2+) added to the Humanity's Last Exam results at https://agi.safe.ai/ has an HLE Accuracy of at least the specified percentage at 12:00 PM ET on the calendar date following the date on which it first appears on the site.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify.
- The percentage displayed as "HLE Accuracy" for the model in its result card on the "AI Progress on Humanity's Last Exam" chart at https://agi.safe.ai/ will be used to resolve this market.
- This market will resolve solely based on the displayed HLE Accuracy, regardless of the model's Calibration Error, chart position, other configuration scores, or any underlying granular or unrounded data presented elsewhere.
