Mittelwert des gewählten Orderbuchs
No release by November 30 · —
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Gespeicherter Referenzwert
No release by November 30 42%Führend unter 32 Optionen
No release by November 30 42%Marktqualitat
43 / 100
Niedrige Qualität24h-Volumen
4340,2 €
Liquidität
5272,8 €
Mittlere LiquiditätOpen Interest
973,9 $
Geld / Brief
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No release by November 30Spread
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Kommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 21 Minuten
28. Okt. 26, 21:49 UTC1. Dez. 26, 04:59 UTC
Chart und Änderungen zeigen gespeicherte historische Wahrscheinlichkeiten, nicht das gewählte aktuelle Orderbuch.
Trends
Gewählte Zeile: Orderbuch-Mittelwert. Andere Zeilen: gespeicherte, ggf. normalisierte Referenzwerte; 24h-Änderungen basieren auf gespeicherter Historie.
Handelsplatzbedingungen
Quelle: Polymarket
Diese Angaben dienen der Information; für den simulierten Handel bei CoinRithm gelten eigene Regeln.
- Mindestorder (Anteile):
- 5
- Preisschritt:
- 1 Prozentpunkte
- Gebühren:
- Nein
Größte Inhaber
Größte Inhaber werden geladen
Markttiefe · No release by November 30
Gewähltes Orderbuch wird geladen…
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Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Claude Opus (5.6+) released by which date?
PolymarketClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 5 METR 50% time horizon [old version, bad buckets]
Manifold MarketsWill "what makes Claude 3 Opus misaligned" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsClaude Opus 4.8 METR 50% time horizon
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Opus's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketRegeln
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which Anthropic's next Claude Opus model (5.6+) is made available to the general public.
- A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Opus" and be designated as version 5.6 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors.
- For example, a version 5.6 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Opus 5 or Claude Opus 5.5 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Opus 6, while models whose name does not include "Opus" or which retain a version designation below 5.6, such as Claude Opus 5.5, including any rollout, promotion, or snapshot of it, will not qualify.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
- A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
- The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website.
