PolymarketVerfügbarkeit prüfenKein KYC2% GebührVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenGut kalibriertAktuelle implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit
November 30 86%+7.0ptFührend unter 3 Optionen
Marktqualitat
67 / 100
Mittlere Qualität24h-Volumen
2496,9 €
Liquidität
15.444,4 €
Mittlere LiquiditätSpread
1.0 pt
Enger SpreadKommentare
0
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 10 Minuten
4. Sept. 26, 14:36 UTC30. Nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
PolymarketNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
PolymarketNext Fable Model (5.2+) released by which date?
PolymarketWill "The current SOTA model was released without s..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiRegeln
On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).
- Credible reporting has identified Meta's next-generation frontier model by the internal codename "Watermelon."
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if Meta releases "Watermelon" or a model confirmed to be the model referenced above, and that model is made available to the general public by the listed date (ET).
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A qualifying model must be named "Watermelon" or be identified, by Meta or by a consensus of credible reporting, as the model internally codenamed "Watermelon," regardless of the name under which it is ultimately released.
- A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups.
Offene Märkte
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,250 or above99%
- $75,000 or above99%
- $75,250 or above98%
+77 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 541.179,1 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 536.731,4 €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 160-179+18.0pt37.1%
- 180-199+10.0pt36.2%
- 200-219-10.0pt12.4%
+23 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,000 or above99%
- $68,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 1,2 Mio. €
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+39.3pt96%
- 65-89-29.7pt4%
- <40-24.4pt0%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Before April 2027+3.0pt71.8%
- Before March 202717.3%
- Before February 2027-1.0pt6.4%
+2 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic89.9%
- OpenAI-1.5pt8.1%
- Google-0.1pt2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Foldable iPhone Announced Price?
- Will Apple release a foldable iPhone by which date?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Highest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 9, 2026?
- Where will it rain on Sep 9, 2026?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Next James Bond actor?
- BNB price range on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date??
- Polymarket bewertet November 30 mit 86% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? entschieden?
- Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? soll am 30. November 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Meta's "Watermelon" model released by which date? abgerechnet?
- Polymarket rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: On September 2, 2026, alongside the launch of Muse Spark 1.3, Meta announced a roadmap "including bigger models" (https://research.meta.ai/blog/introducing-muse-spark-1-3).