Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 72.3%
Prognostiker
46
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 4 Stunden
Veraltet3. Juni 24, 14:10 UTC1. Jan. 36, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Criteria for Resolution:
- Claim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made.
- The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.
- Types of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as "certain”, "almost sure”, "pretty certain”, "almost inevitable", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.
- If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.
- Verification of Ambiguity:
