Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
PolitikGeopolitikOne-OffUS-Politik2J
Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 69.4%
Prognostiker
102
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 59 Minuten
Verzogert18. Jan. 26, 11:47 UTC20. Jan. 29, 11:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed from office before January 20th of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill USA use military force to take control over either Greenland, Canada or the Panama Canal before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiRegeln
Resolves YES if Trump deploys U.S. military forces to Greenland without Danish/Greenlandic consent in an attempt to establish control over any portion of its territory, AND leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he deploys such forces and completes his term (or leaves due to e.g. death or incapacitation)
- Resolves N/A if no unauthorized military deployment to Greenland occurs.
- Update 2026-01-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Removal via military coup or other non-constitutional means would resolve NO.
- The market specifically tracks removal through constitutional accountability (impeachment/conviction) or political pressure (resignation) only.
