Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertWarnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 24.10.2026, 22:10 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-PrognoseNein 86%
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 48 Minuten
Verzogert18. Jan. 26, 15:35 UTC20. Jan. 29, 12:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will Trump be removed or resign from office if he uses military force against Greenland?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump be removed from office before January 20th of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Nancy Pelosi resign her office before the midterms?
KalshiWill Don Bacon resign his office before the midterms?
KalshiTrump removed via 25th Amendment before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if Trump leaves office before January 20, 2029 via:
- Impeachment and Senate conviction, OR
- Resolves NO if he completes his term (or leaves due to death or incapacitation).
- Resolves N/A if the office of the presedency ceases to exist.
- Update 2026-01-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump is removed via the 25th Amendment and it lasts for the remainder of his term, the market resolves YES.