Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 75.5%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 6 Stunden
Veraltet17. Sept. 23, 14:31 UTC2. Jan. 50, 04:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will an interstellar mission to Alpha Centauri be launched by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill an interstellar mission to alpha centauri be launched before 2040?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill there be a successful manned mission to Mars by 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship manned flight to successfully land on the moon by the end of 2026?
FutuurWill a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
KalshiRegeln
The destination does not necessarily need to be the orbit of another star, but the mission should enter interstellar space.
- For the purposes of this market, "interstellar space" begins simply at 150 AU from the Sun.
Offene Märkte
Space
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,3 Mio. €
- 24h-Volumen
- 103.065,4 €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 57.371,5 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 57.371,5 €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 817.857 €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 76% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? entschieden?
- Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? soll am 2. Januar 2250 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will there be a manned interstellar mission before 2250? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: The destination does not necessarily need to be the orbit of another star, but the mission should enter interstellar space.