Will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?
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Daten vom 30.10.2026, 03:10 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
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Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, the United States enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force).
- Voluntary commitments, guidance without blocking authority, or state laws without frontier-release blocking power do not count.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
- Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.
