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Veraltet3. Sept. 26, 21:21 UTC31. Dez. 27, 23:59 UTC
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Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the next Claude Fable model use encrypted compaction?
Manifold MarketsWill "American Government Takes Down Claude Fable" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsGPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?
PolymarketWhich models will GPT-6 Astra be higher than on arena.ai agent arena on the 12th September?
Manifold MarketsGPT 6 Astra debut arena score
KalshiAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).
- https://epoch.ai/benchmarks?view=graph&tab=eci
- [link preview]
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+12.5pt89%
- 2026+23.0pt71%
- September 30, 2026+24.5pt43%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 125.175,4 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 55.021,8 €
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture+8.0pt42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer-1.0pt25.7%
- Yang-Mills+13.6pt14.3%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+33.0pt90%
- 2026+21.5pt50%
- September 30, 2026+20.5pt34%
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-23.0pt38%
- 2027-1.0pt17%
- 2026-2.0pt5%
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt62.8%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt20.6%
- Gemini-0.9pt6.9%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,3 Mio. €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,84%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 2,4 Mio. €
- Anthropic market share this week
- Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
- Tencent market share this week
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- OpenAI market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 67% (Stand: 10. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? entschieden?
- Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? soll am 31. Dezember 2027 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the next Claude Fable release score higher on ECI than the next GPT Astra release? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: This is for the next Fable/Mythos class model (or higher tier, if such is the next release) after Fable 5.1 (at ECI 163), and the next Astra or higher tier GPT model after Astra 6 (at ECI 169).