Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 78.9%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 5 Stunden
Veraltet19. Mai 23, 17:36 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:00 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
What year will the IMO grand challenge be completed?
Manifold MarketsTime between AI winning IMO gold medal and AI winning IMO grand challenge (see description)
Manifold MarketsWill a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
Manifold MarketsWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
This resolves YES if the IMO grand challenge is completed before the end of 2030 according to the rules on the site https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io/ according to the IMO Grand Challenge committee.
- This requires an AI to generate machine-checkable proof of enough problems on one of the of the IMOs in 2023-2030 for a gold medal (there are more rules on the website).
- This resolves NO if this has not happened at the start of 2031.
- It will also resolve NO if a few weeks after the IMO in 2030 there is nobody claiming that the IMO grand challenge has been solved.
- This resolves N/A if the IMO grand challenge is either canceled or abandoned (e.g. there is a serious claim that the challenge is completed and nobody of the committee comments on the submission for multiple months).
