Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?
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Veraltet19. Aug. 25, 21:10 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
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BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%
- Top 7 LLMs Ranked in 2025: GPT-4o, Gemini, Claude & More.
- To establish the 2025 baseline:
- On Dec 31, 2025, identify the LLM with the highest average score across the "Core Benchmark Suite" (defined below)
- This becomes the baseline for calculating 10% improvement
- CORE BENCHMARK SUITE (to avoid cherry-picking):
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 83% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? entschieden?
- Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%