Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 54%
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Aktualisiert vor 7 Minuten
18. Sept. 25, 10:37 UTC31. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsGerman "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)
Manifold MarketsGerman Bundestag dissolved by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.
- This can be as part of a coalition or with an absolute majority.
- Tolerating a minority government does not count.
- I will follow the mainstream media consensus on who is part of the government.
- Generally, this involves having a minister who belongs to the party.
- There are currently five elections remaining on state level in this timeframe (https://www.wahlrecht.de/termine.htm) and also some states where the state of the parliament seems somewhat unstable after the elections last year.
Offene Märkte
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
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- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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+38 weitere Ergebnisse
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- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 54% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026? entschieden?
- Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026? soll am 31. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves YES if the AfD is part of the government on state level.