Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 95.2%
Prognostiker
22
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 15 Stunden
Veraltet27. Okt. 25, 22:27 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)?
Manifold MarketsWill the German government coalition hold until the next federal election in 2029?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Sweden
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
Offene Märkte
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- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
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POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
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- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
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+38 weitere Ergebnisse
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 95% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) entschieden?
- German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) soll am 30. Dezember 2026 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird German "Brandmauer" (AfD collaboration ban) falls before EOY 2026? (official coalition) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolution criteria