Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 93.8%
Prognostiker
23
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 14 Minuten
27. Okt. 25, 22:27 UTC30. Dez. 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the AfD officially join any German state-level governing coalition by December 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the German AfD be part of a ruling coalition on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUK government approval among women falls below 5% this year (repost from last year)?
Manifold MarketsVVD + CDA + D66 coalition forms in Netherlands?
Manifold MarketsNext French Presidential Election
PolymarketNext Prime Minister of Serbia?
PolymarketRegeln
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Alternative for Germany (AfD) formally enters into a governing coalition with at least one established mainstream German political party (such as CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, or Alliance 90/The Greens) at either the federal or state (Land) level, resulting in a signed coalition agreement, before or on December 31, 2026.
- The market will resolve to "No" if no such official coalition agreement is formed by the specified date.
- For resolution, verifiable evidence of a signed coalition agreement published by the participating parties, or official government formation documents, will be required.
- Casual parliamentary cooperation on specific votes, tacit support for motions, or agreements at the municipal/local level will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution.
- The "Brandmauer" (firewall) is a long-standing political consensus among Germany's established mainstream parties to prevent formal cooperation with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD).
