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Will the most capable, public multimodal model at the end of 2027 in my judgement use a transformer-like architecture?
Manifold MarketsOn January 1, 2027, a Transformer-like model will continue to hold the state-of-the-art position in most benchmark
Manifold MarketsWill a diffusion transformer (like what's used in oasis) generate an entire subreddit by EOY2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a paper clip maximizing AGI be developed 5 years after AGI is acheived
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegeln
The Transformer architecture, introduced by Vaswani et al.
- (2017), has become the dominant approach in natural language processing tasks due to its effectiveness in capturing long-range dependencies, utilizing self-attention mechanisms, and enabling massive parallelization.
- Since then, various adaptations of the architecture have emerged, such as GPT, which removed the encoder portion of the model.
- The question to be answered is whether the first robotic Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) will be developed using a transformer-like architecture, considering the original design as well as its potential modifications.
- Before January 1st, 2100, will the first robotic AGI be developed using a transformer-like architecture at its core, as determined by credible reports or academic publications?
- Resolution Criteria: