Manifold MarketsKein KYCVerifizierte AuflösungsdatenOrdentlich kalibriertAktuelle Community-PrognoseJa 66.4%
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Aktualisiert vor 9 Minuten
8. Apr. 25, 19:41 UTC31. Dez. 30, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will open-source AI remain at least one year behind proprietary AI? (ACX, AI 2027 #4)
Manifold MarketsWill a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRegeln
Prediction #1 from:
- My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
Offene Märkte
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-11.0pt62.4%
- 2027-3.5pt29.7%
- 2026-1.5pt7.9%
- Gesamtvolumen
- 241.307,2 €
- 24h-Volumen
- 128.006,7 €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.7pt58.8%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt23.5%
- Grok+2.3pt7.8%
+5 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 9,1 Mio. €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+1.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+3.0pt10%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 weitere Ergebnisse
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+1.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt10.2%
- Gemini+1.0pt2.8%
+4 weitere Ergebnisse
- Gesamtvolumen
- 349.424,1 €
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Most popular AI this week
- DeepSeek market share this week
Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1)?
- Manifold Markets bewertet Yes mit 66% (Stand: 9. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1) entschieden?
- Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1) soll am 31. Dezember 2030 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the first major AI scare come from hacking? (ACX, AI 2027 Prediction #1) abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Prediction #1 from: