Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 71.2%
Prognostiker
26
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet2. Feb. 24, 05:44 UTC2. Jan. 50, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Regeln
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.51°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.50°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
Offene Märkte
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Häufige Fragen
- Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050??
- Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 71% (Stand: 8. September 2026).
- Wann wird Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050? entschieden?
- Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050? soll am 2. Januar 2050 entschieden werden.
- Wie wird Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050? abgerechnet?
- Manifold Markets rechnet diesen Markt wie folgt ab: Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.5°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050