Warnung zur DatenqualitätQuelldaten beeinträchtigt
Daten vom 26.10.2026, 07:03 UTC · Richtlinie pm-quality-4
Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Nein 53.3%
Prognostiker
17
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 7 Stunden
Veraltet5. Feb. 24, 18:13 UTC2. Jan. 50, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 2°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsDid HIV come from a laboratory?
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.2°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.21°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.2°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
