Wie stehen die aktuellen Quoten für Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050??

Manifold Markets bewertet No mit 81.6% (Stand: 28. Oktober 2026).

Wann wird Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050? entschieden?

Will the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050? soll am 2. Januar 2050 entschieden werden.

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Fragetyp

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Quellentyp

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2. Feb. 24, 05:45 UTC2. Jan. 50, 07:59 UTC

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Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 3.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2100

Resolves negative otherwise
https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision reported.
So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 3.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 3.00°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.