Aktuelle Community-Prognose
Ja 59.6%
Prognostiker
20
Fragetyp
binary
Methodik
Play-money forecasting platform
Quellentyp
Prognose
Marktdaten
Aktualisiert vor 24 Minuten
2. Feb. 24, 05:44 UTC2. Jan. 50, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Verwandte Märkte
Verwandte Fragen als Kontext, kein Vergleich gleichwertiger Kontrakte.
Will the climate heat up more than 2.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 2.2°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3.5°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill the climate heat up more than 3°C before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill climate intervention (geoengineering) reduce global mean surface temperature by at least 0.1°C by 2030?
Manifold MarketsAny of these 30 LLM-generated disasters happens in Europe through 2027
Manifold MarketsRegeln
Resolves positive if the long-run [20 year] global mean temperature average raises more than 2.0°C vs. the 1850-1900 average before 2050
- Resolves negative otherwise
- https://web.archive.org/web/20220518083042/https://library.wmo.int/doc_num.php?explnum_id=11178
- If the temperature reaches the threshold, then falls back below that level the contract still resolves positive.
- The temperature must heat more than the threshold in the title for the contract to resolve positive, to whatever precision measured.
- So, if a reputable source gives the midpoint temperature increase as 2.01°C, the contrast will resolve positive, but not if the source lists 2.0°C. If the source uses a confidence interval, the contract will resolve based on the reported midpoint.
